Who wins the "SD NIT"? A CIF Division 1 Semifinals Preview
So, who wins ninth place?
The CIF Division 1 bracket, which comprises the 16 D1 teams that did not ascend to the Open Division, is San Diego's equivalent of the NIT or the Flint Mega Bowl, for my Will Ferrell fans out there.
But just like the teams who don't make the big dance in college, the D1 playoffs are what you make of them. For some programs, it's a chance for redemption. For others, an opportunity to build on the momentum of a strong close to the season. Still for other upstart programs, the D1 bracket is a chance to prove they belong in the discussion of the best programs in the region.
The teams in the four-team semifinals field in this year's D1 bracket - No. 1 seed La Jolla Country Day, No. 2 seed St. Augustine, No. 4 seed Victory Christian and No. 6 seed Sage Creek - fall somewhere in those categories.
So, which teams will meet for the D1 title on Saturday? Let's dive in.
(1) La Jolla Country Day (17-12) vs (4) Victory Christian (17-13), 7 p.m. Wednesday, Feb. 26
Head to Head record: Did not play
Common Opponents: Torrey Pines (LJCD won 60-55, Victory lost 70-53); Del Norte (LJCD won 60-36, Victory won 65-62, won 64-51); St. Augustine (LJCD won 70-53, Victory lost 67-54); Cathedral Catholic (LJCD won 59-52, lost 73-60; Victory won 65-57); Mission Hills (LJCD won 55-52, Victory won 63-47)
Key Contributors
La Jolla Country Day
Chris Carrillo, 5-11 Sr. PG; Wyatt Tilson, 6-3 Jr. F; Ely Elegado, 6-2 Sr. G; Henry Kiamilev, 6-0 Sr. G; Reid Givens, 6-5 Sr. F; Alejandro Gonzalez, 6-6 So. F; Isaac Herman, 6-1 Sr G; Ekin Matanza, 6-1 Sr. F
Victory Christian
Angel Ochoa, 5-10 Sr. G; Jayden Gray, 6-0 Jr. G; Isaiah Owens, 6-2 Jr. W; Adrian Fernadez, 6-3 Sr. W; Angel Escarcega, 5-11 Sr. G, Chato Garcia, 6-0 Jr. G; Troy Tominna, 6-1 Fr. G; Kaerym Araiza, 6-3 Jr. W; Elijah Bragg, 6-6 Sr. C; Ben Cordova, 6-2 Jr. W
How they got here
La Jolla Country Day
The Torreys are trying to erase the disappointment of a regular season that saw them play themselves out of the Open Division playoffs over the final two weeks, losing the Coastal League title and then dropping to third in the league after losing two of its final three games. Entering the season as my preseason No. 6 team, the team has struggled to find consistency - they had four game winning streaks and losing streaks this year - at times looking capable of beating anyone, while other times lacking the focus to close out those same games. Two players that have largely been consistent, however, are their core duo of Chris Carrillo and Wyatt Tilson, who notched All Coastal League first-team honors for the third and second straight year, respectively. In Carrillo, they have one of the most dynamic passers and scorers off the bounce in the region, and in Tilson, a big-bodied wing who can knock down threes on the catch, score off the bounce and score with his back to the basket - a true three-level threat. They are at their best when Ely Elegado is contributing from distance and their bigs - namely Givens - can stay out of foul trouble. They appear to have found a rhythm in the playoffs after trailing No. 16 Hoover at halftime, they have outscored their opponents 137-60.
Victory Christian
The Knights entered the season as my No. 10 ranked team, but struggled early on as they lost Angel Escarcega, last year's third leading scorer, to a preseason shoulder injury, and Jayden Gray struggled to find his rhythm returning from football. They dropped 7 of their first 10 games before getting a huge win over La Costa Canyon in the Torrey Pines Holiday Classic and following it up with an impressive 4-0 showing at the Nike Tournament of Champions in Arizona in early January. The constants this season have been Angel Ochoa, the dynamic scoring guard who led the county in scoring the past two seasons at St. Joseph Academy, Isaiah Owens, the team's glue guy his first two seasons who took on a bigger scoring role in his third varsity campaign, and Chato Garcia, who has inherited the glue guy role from Owens and impacts the game in ways that don't show up on the stat sheet. The addition of Elijah Bragg from Mater Dei Catholic gives the Knights a solid position defender they can deploy against opposing bigs in short spurts in tandem with Adrian Fernandez, and Kaerym Araiza, who hails from Mexicali, gives them a long shooter who can space the floor at the four. The emergence of Troy Tominna down the stretch (he is averaging nearly 12 points per game since Feb. 1 and netted a player of the game award at the Battle at the Bay) has made them even deeper.
Why they'll win
La Jolla Country Day
Experience: The Torreys have been here before over the past three seasons. The sophomore core stunned Mission Bay in the D1 finals in 2023, then stunned Torrey Pines last season in the first round of the Open Division. They've proven over the years that they are gamers when it matters most.
Victory Christian
Momentum: There aren't many teams that have been hotter than the Knights down the stretch of the season, as they claimed wins over Sage Creek, Cathedral Catholic and Olympian during February. With Ochoa, they have a guy who is unguardable at times, and as Gray has rounded back into form, they comprise a tough one-two punch in the back court.
Prediction
Victory Christian is certainly capable of winning this game, as the Torreys haven't exactly held serve on their home floor (both late season losses to Parker and SFC were at home), and the Knights are on a tear. But part of me thinks that the recent home playoff wins, which haven't been close, have given the Torreys the tailwind they need to advance to their second D1 final in three years.
La Jolla Country Day 67, Victory Christian 62
(2) St. Augustine (16-14) vs (6) Sage Creek (21-8) , 7 p.m. Wednesday, Feb. 26
Head to Head record: Sage Creek 1-0 (won 62-53 Jan. 30)
Common opponents: University City (St. Augustine won 60-48, 68-56; Sage Creek won 73-63, 66-60); SFC (St. Augustine won 77-69, Sage Creek lost 72-56); Victory Christian (St. Augustine won 67-54, Sage Creek lost 62-52); Carlsbad (St. Augustine lost 77-54, Sage Creek lost 75-66); Mission hills (St. Augustine lost 73-66 2OT, Sage Creek lost 66-55)
Key Players:
St. Augustine
Jaden Bailes, 6-2 Jr. G; Manny Cortez, 6-3 Sr. F; Lincoln Grogan, 6-3 Jr. G; Paisios Polamolu, 6-0 So. G; Anthony Etheridge, 6-3 So. G; Drew Parker, 6-4 So. W; Tanner Kamencik, 6-2 Sr. G; Johnny Stone, 6-1 Sr. G
Sage Creek
Elijah Stephens, 6-7 Sr. F; Vaughn Young, 5-10 Jr. G; Jordan Barnhart, 6-4 Jr. G; Elias Samady, 5-11 Sr. G; Kayden Naccarato, 5-9 Sr. G; Rohan Keswani, 6-1 Sr. G; Teagan Olson, 6-1 Jr. G; Sam Jahries, 6-5 So. F
How they got here
St. Augustine
Paraphrasing Dickens is very cliche, but it truly was a tale of two seasons for the Saints: pre sit-out period and post sit-out period. Mike Haupt got off to his worst start in his 30-year career at Saints, going 2-9 his first 11 games, three of those stunningly to San Diego teams: Olympian, Mission Hills and La Jolla Country Day. There was a common them to those games: both Jaden Bailes and Paisios Polamolu did not play due to injury and football, respectively. When they returned to the lineup, things only marginally improved, as the Saints faced the toughest stretch of their schedule - the top divisions of both the Tarkanian Classic and the Torrey Pines Holiday Classic - without their full roster (Anthony Etheridge was injured for most of the stretch). Then came the end of the sit-out period and Mater Dei Catholic transfer Lincoln Grogan became eligible, and that, along with a healthy roster, propelled the Saints to a 13-2 record over their last 15 games, running through the Western League undefeated for the third straight season, an improbable feat. Jaden Bailes, the electric junior scoring guard, appears poised to be named to the All-CIF team for a second straight year, and the 2027 group appears to be on a strong trajectory. Manny Cortez, the unheralded senior "basketball player" has been critical as a defender and secondary playmaker for the Saints, and earned his first all-league recognition this season. From Jan. 1 on, Saints played like an Open Division team, and looked the part in their two playoff games, winning by an average margin of 31 points per contest. But about those two losses during that stretch...one of them was a stunner on Jan. 30 at the hands of...
Sage Creek
The Bobcats spent most of the season below everyone's radar, despite holding solid wins against El Camino, University City (2x) and La Costa Canyon. That was until Jan. 30, when the Bobcats took down the Saints at home 62-53, in a game they controlled pretty much from the outset. That game effectively eliminated the Saints from the Open Division hunt and set us on the collision course towards the semifinals rematch. Led by the imposing Stephens, who has shattered Sage Creek's scoring and rebounding records over a brilliant (and unheralded) four year career, commands the paint on offense, getting to his spots and using great footwork, patience and brute force to score around, over and through defenders. Often facing double and triple teams, Stephens has become a much more willing and effective passer in his final year, which has led to his supporting cast leveling up. Vaughn Young, the spindly combo guard, and Jordan Barnhart, a wiry, right-hand dominant sharp shooter, have benefited the most from the attention defenses pay to Stephens, knocking down shots at an impressive clip. Meanwhile, Kayden Naccarato and Rohan Keswani provide the requisite defensive physicality on the perimeter. The wild card off the bench is Samady - when the lefty sees a shot fall down, defenders are in for a long night. It was the Bobcat's bad luck that somehow they dropped into the North County Conference's third league, the Avocado League, which dragged down the team's computer numbers (the rest of the league was way down). Otherwise, this might be an Open Division team that no one would want to face.
Why they'll win:
St. Augustine
Adjustments: There are only a handful of coaches in the country who are better at adjusting to opponents a second time around than Haupt, and you can bet that he and staff have been pouring over the Jan. 30 film to find a weakness they can exploit. I wouldn't bet against him in the playoffs.
Sage Creek
Stephens: There are only a couple of teams in the county that have the size to guard Stephens straight up, and Saints aren't one of them. Inevitably, that will leave one of the Bobcats crack shooters open, and when that happens, they can play with anyone.
Prediction
This one will be competitive to start, but ultimately, behind a raucous homecourt, Saints continues its revenge tour to the D1 finals.
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