The Unexpected: SD's biggest surprise teams
Each year in San Diego, I foolishly try to assess where many of the county's teams sit at the beginning of the year, ranking at least 50 of them to start the year. Some teams will celebrate their preseason standing, while others will use them as bulletin-board material or motivation to exceed the expectations.
This season is no different, as a number of teams have put themselves on the map with their play and their record, surprising me in the process.
Here are the biggest surprises, based on their current ranking compared to my preseason outlook.
Point Loma
Preseason Rank: 48
Current Maxpreps Rank: 28
Margin over preseason rank: +20
What I said: "The Pointers will lean heavily on their "Big Four" of Grant Stewart, Trevor Dorris, Na'Sean Hardy and the San Diego transfer Jax Marple, which gives them a very good stable of guards. If Josh Aros team can get rebounding a toughness from Caldwell, who Aros said reminds him of last year's all-leaguer Nick Freeman, this team will might be too low."
What happened: Well, I was right: The "Big Four" account for 48 of the team's 62 points per game -- the underrated Stewart leads the way with 18.2 points per contest -- and the ranking was too low. What I got wrong was who was going to account for the rebounding margin, and it turned out to be Hardy. Back from a serious injury late last season, doubled both his scoring and rebounding output from his sophomore year, averaging 13 points and 7 boards in his breakout campaign. Marple, who has come on strong for the Pointers, has also had a strong sophomore season, averaging 9.2 points per game.
Southwest SD
Preseason Rank: Unranked
Current Maxpreps Rank: 30
Margin over preseason rank: +20
What I thought: The Raiders entered the season graduating a ton from last year's D4 runner up squad, including 25-ppg scorer Xavier Gonzalez and team anchor Aaron Rosillo. Soltero was solid as a sophomore, but I wasn't sure if he was a true No. 2 option or the beneficiary of the attention defenses paid to Gonzalez. The other returners - Verdida and Borja - were solid, but inconsistent.
What happened: What I didn't see was the emergence of Deiranieh (pronounced Deira-KNEE) and Diaz, two seldom-used reserves off the 23-24 squad. They've become full-blown stars to give the Raiders three double-figure scorers, while Borja and Verdida have also elevated their game to give Southwest a great back court trio. As a result, the Raiders are currently the No. 2 ranked team in Division 3, trailing only Point Loma. On the flipside, as was the case last season, the Raiders have benefited from a really soft schedule (their best nonleague win was against a really down Eastlake squad), and have taken losses against teams with worse records but against stronger competition: Monte Vista, Helix and Hoover. Whether this will rear its head in the D3 playoffs remains to be seen.
Christian
Preseason Rank: 29
Current Maxpreps Rank: 12
Margin over preseason rank: +17
What I thought: "This team should start to move up the standings after the sit-out period, when the Steele Canyon transfer Ronnie Scott becomes eligible. Juju Lebel should become a household name in SD this season, and he, Gannon Pisapia and Alex Williams - who also transferred from Steele Canyon - should lead the way until the team becomes whole. If the sophomore trio of Peyton Price, Dwight McDonald and Connor Kiti and continue their progression, this team should be a top contender in Division 2."
What happened: The Patriots have only lost once since the sit-out period - a 60-47 setback in their league opener against San Diego - and avenged that loss three weeks later. Overall, the Patriots are 20-2 since starting the season 2-3, one of the 10 best records in SD during that stretch. Making it more impressive is that they've done much of this without Williams, who has missed the majority of the season with an undisclosed injury. Lebel has been playing the best basketball of the season since the opening league loss, and Scott, Pisapia and the aforementioned sophomores have all leveled up. Another big piece of the success has been the steady hand of freshman point guard Anthony Lee, who was forced into a much bigger role with the loss of Williams - and has delivered.
T3. La Jolla
Preseason Rank: 49
Current Maxpreps Rank: 32
Margin over preseason rank: +17
What I said: "The addition of Leo Hawkinson gives the Vikings a major lift and give them a nice trio along with Brody Sessa and Lance Braga, both varsity veterans. The team graduated its two leading scorers from last season, including 20-ppg scorer Michael Contreras, but this version of the Vikings should have more balance."
What happened: Hawkinson turned out to be a major game changer for the Vikings, leading them at 15.9 points per game, but it was the emergence of Sessa, who more than doubled his scoring output from a season ago from 6.1 points to 14 points per game, and Braga, who improved as a scorer and rebounder in his senior year, that gave the Vikings the firepower to jump out to a 10-0 start to the season before coming down to earth their final 16 games (7-9). Still, a 4-4 record in the underrated City League is better than I anticipated to start the year.
