Is this the Year of the Aztec? An Open Division Semifinals Preview

After four seasons, three league titles and two CIF Open Division championship appearances, the legacy of the Montgomery Aztecs will be written these next four days.

Can the Aztecs finally get over the hump and give the program its first boys basketball title since 1996, or will they be shut out for a third-straight time? Can Jake Hall go out on top of CIF for a second-consecutive time after eclipsing the 3,000-point barrier? Or will one of the Western League teams that no one seems to be talking about flip the script?

Here's my take on the Open Division Semifinals

(1) Montgomery (27-2) vs (4) Mission Bay, 7 p.m. Tuesday, Feb. 25

Head to Head: Did not play

Common Opponents: University City (Montgomery won 59-34, Mission Bay won 81-39, 59-49); Bonita Vista (Montgomery won 77-36, Mission Bay won 59-46); Santa Fe Christian (Montgomery won 94-66, Mission Bay lost 56-49); Rancho Buena Vista (Montgomery won 78-36, Mission Bay won 82-39, 88-54)

Key Players:

Montgomery

JJ Sanchez, 6-5 Sr. F; Devin Hamilton, 6-4 Sr. W; Xair Mendez, 6-2 Sr. G; Alek Sanchez, 6-4 Sr. G; Xavier Guerrero, 6-5 Jr. F; Rey Gutierrez, 6-3 Sr. G; Kyden Eleazar-Martin, 5-8 Fr. G; Darius Montgomery, 6-1 Jr. G; Jayden Cannon, 6-5 Sr. F

Mission Bay

Caleb Newton, 6-3 Jr. G; Pablo Balderas, 6-5 Sr. F, Clay Grebing, 6-7 Jr. F; Jojo Bartlett, 6-1 Jr. G; Atreju De La Cruz, 6-0 Sr. G; Maseyo Elliott, 6-3 Sr. G; Kevon Fitzpatrick, 6-3 Sr. W; Abwola Ochalla, 6-5 Sr. F

How They got here

Montgomery

For Montgomery, this year has been nearly a decade in the making, as part of the core of the team - the Sanchez twins, Xair Mendez and Xavier Guerrero - have been playing together since grade school. After upsetting San Ysidro to win the Mesa League as sophomores, the Aztecs have been to the Open Championship twice: first, a 30-point loss at the hands of St. Augustine, and last year, a 9-point defeat against Carlsbad in a game they played without Mendez (suspension) and Guerrero (injury). This year, the Aztecs have done nothing to indicate they are not on a mission -- they've won 27 games, including winning the second division at the Tarkanian Classic in December and finishing 5th place in the National Division of the Torrey Pines Holiday Classic. They have moments of complacency: a stunning upset at the hands of Montgomery in Mesa League play, a near loss at the hands of Bakersfield Christian in a showcase game in January and some early game struggles against San Diego and Victory Christian down the stretch, but they also showed they are a quick study: they beat Olympian by 39 points in a running clock game when the team's played again earlier this month. As talented as the individual pieces are (JJ Sanchez is arguably the toughest cover in San Diego, Hamilton an athletic specimen who impacts the game with his slashing and lockdown defense, Mendez an three-level scorer who also is an excellent on-ball defender and "Flako" Sanchez being the maestro who connects the pieces together), this is a team that has excellent synergy and the players elevate each other.

Mission Bay

The Buccaneers started the season in disappointing fashion, dropping three of their first four games to Carlsbad, Rancho Verde and Santa Fe Christian. But they quickly turned the ship around, winning 12 straight, including a win over Sacramento Inderkum that wound up being the only loss the team sustained all year and a blowout of Torrey Pines. In Western League play, they finished ,500, losing to Cathedral Catholic and St. Augustine four times, all games that the Bucs could have won. The big reason for the turnaround has been the improved play of Caleb Newton, the 6-3 guard with breathtaking athleticism and microwave-like scoring ability, and the emergence of Balderas, two years removed from a serious knee injury, as the team's heart and soul. His rebounding and scoring exploits in the paint garnered him a scholarship offer to Cal State San Marcos, which he accepted, and All Western League First Team honors. The Bucs are arguably the deepest team left in the Open Division field, as Marshawn Cherry has eight players who you could argue could each be the top player on a number of local programs. As the season has gone along and players have accepted those roles, Mission Bay has lived up to the promise that comes with all of that talent.

Why they'll win

Montgomery

A suffocating defense. The Aztecs are one of the elite defensive teams in the state, yielding 70 points once all season (an overtime thriller against Windward). They clog the paint and do a great job contesting shots on the perimeter and rebound the ball to complete defensive possessions. It doesn't hurt to have two of the best individual defenders in the section in Hamilton and Mendez, but the Sanchez twins do a solid job in their own right.

Mission Bay

Bodies. The Buccaneers can wear you down with their depth, and they are one of a handful of teams with the prerequisite size and physicality to bother JJ Sanchez, and the bodies to possibly get Montgomery in foul trouble, which is one of the team's few vulnerabilities.

Prediction

This game should be competitive throughout, but playing in front of a home crowd, Montgomery appears poised to advance to its third straight Open Division title game.

Montgomery 64, Mission Bay 58

(2) Carlsbad (24-5) vs (6) Cathedral Catholic (20-9), 7 p.m. Tuesday, Feb. 25

Head to Head: Did not play

Common Opponents: Mission Bay (Carlsbad won 63-52, Cathedral won 60-57 and 69-65), La Jolla Country Day (Carlsbad won 80-68, Cathedral lost 59-52, won 73-60); Torrey Pines (Carlsbad lost 70-45, 69-68 OT, Cathedral Catholic won 78-65)

Key Players

Carlsbad

Jake Hall, 6-4 Sr. G; Jordan Garner, 5-10 Sr. G; Briggs Young, 6-2 Jr. G; Jett Kenady, 6-1 Sr. G; Jayden Garner, 6-2 Jr. G; Dylan Sims, 6-3 Jr. G; Trenton Mehl, 6-0 Jr. G; Roman Payne, 6-11 Sr. C; Joaquin Fernandez-Silva, 6-3 Sr. W

Cathedral Catholic

Patrick O'Brien, 6-5 Sr. G/F, PJ Jourdain, 6-3 Sr. G; Steven Evans-Glynn, 6-4 Sr. W; Luke Rall, 6-2 G, Max Meza, 6-2 Jr. G; Kai Carlson, 6-5 Jr. F; Tyler Vosburgh, 6-5 Jr. W; Boone Thompson, 6-5 Fr. F

How They got here

Carlsbad

The expectation was that Carlsbad, fresh off of an Open Division championship, would slide back after graduating two Division 1 players in Tony Duckett and Jael Martin, and that the focus might become Jake Hall's quest to become the third player in CIF history to score 3,000 points. As it turns out, the Lancers didn't skip a beat and Hall, signed to UC San Diego, accomplished the feat. But perhaps his biggest feat was elevating a squad of solid role players (although Jordan Garner has emerged as a potential All CIF player in his final year) into a team that defeated OC powers Mater Dei Catholic and Los Alamitos, Nevada power Coronado, and came within a quarter of advancing to their second straight National Division championship game at The Holiday Classic. The team came back to earth a bit in the second half of the year, dropping games to Weston Ranch and two to Torrey Pines, who stunningly thwarted the Lancers attempt at a third-straight North County Coastal League title. But the Lancers resumed their winning ways in the first Open Division game, beating a very good Santa Fe Christian team to advance to their third straight Open Division Semifinals.

Cathedral Catholic

After a year of turmoil that resulted in the transfer of star guard Ty Ingram, an ugly 40-point blowout in the first round of the Open Division playoffs last season at the hands of Carlsbad and a stunning home loss in the CIF State Playoffs to La Habra, the Dons returned with renewed focus, and righted the ship. They finished second in the Western League to perennial power St. Augustine, but those games were among the best played in SD this year. The big reason for the Dons steadiness this year is the improved chemistry and connectivity of its senior trio of Patrick O'Brien, Steven Evans-Glynn and the much improved PJ Jourdain, who all appear to cheer for each other's successes much more than they did as juniors. The underclassmen have also improved, as Max Meza has become a solid two-way point guard and Kai Carlson frequently takes on the toughest defensive assignment. Freshman Boone Thompson has become a nice rotation piece over the course of the year, too, as the Dons look to him, Vosburgh and Rall off the bench to provide scoring and intangibles.

Why they'll win:

Carlsbad

Hall. It's not an exaggeration to say that there isn't a more complete scorer in San Diego over the past decade than Hall (the last one being TJ Leaf), who is a bona fide three-level scorer and does it with a blend of footwork, savvy and strength that makes him almost impossible to cover with just one defender. Other guys might have been better prospects, like Jaylen Hands and Boogie Ellis, but if we're talking pound-for-pound scorers, Hall is as good of one as this county has produced, perhaps ever.

Cathedral Catholic

Their starting five. The Dons will have advantages all over the floor if they can negotiate the Lancers defensive pressure, starting with O'Brien, who blends scoring and downhill playmaking in a way that makes him a mismatch. If Evans-Glynn and Jourdain are going early, this could be an upset in the making.

Prediction

Cathedral Catholic has been waiting for the chance to rewrite the sour taste of the blowout loss to the Lancers last season, and they will keep it close, but I think Hall and crew eventually prevails in the final quarter.

Carlsbad 71, Cathedral Catholic 68