Can Coronado continue its Cinderella Run? A CIF Division 3 Semifinal Preview
The CIF Division 3 Playoffs have essentially gone chalk, with one exception.
No. 7 seed Coronado joins top-seeded Southwest SD, No. 3 seed Maranatha Christian and No. 4 Rancho Bernardo in a Division that doesn't scream "star power" but has a ton of underrated players and teams.
Which teams will meet Saturday at Otay Ranch High School for the crown? Let's dig in, shall we?
(1) Southwest San Diego (24-6) vs (4) Rancho Bernardo (20-10), 7 p.m. Wednesday, Feb. 26
Head to head: Did not play
Common Opponents: Fallbrook (RB won 75-32 and 67-62; Southwest won 63-50); Mount Miguel (Southwest won 53-37; RB won 63-50)
Key Players
Southwest: Noah Soltero, 6-4 Jr. F; Khalid Deiranieh, 6-5 Sr. F; River Diaz, 6-1 Jr. G; Brandon Borja, 5-7 Sr. PG; Shaun Verdida, 5-11 Sr. G
Rancho Bernardo: Evan Woodland, 6-0 Sr. G; Luke Sanchez, 6-3 Sr. W; Ethan Palmer, 6-5 Sr. F; Cyrus Sadri-Ahwazi, 6-3 Jr. G; Noah Santa Ana, 5-9 Sr. G; Lucas Winkler, 6-5 Jr. F; Brady Savage, 5-11 Jr. G; Andy Shipman, 6-0 Sr. G
How they got here: Southwest SD
For a second consecutive year, the Raiders claimed the top seed in their division, and are one win away from returning to a championship game - the Raiders lost the D4 championship to Mount Miguel last season. This run seemed improbable, considering they graduated the heart of last year's team, Xavier Gonzalez, who averaged 24 points per game, as well as the soul of the team, Aaron Rosillo, who essentially did all the little things to make the team win. But here the Raiders are again, as the returning cast leveled up this year, most notably senior forward Khalid Dei junior guard River Diaz, who were among the county's most improved players and prospects. They teamed with Noah Soltero, a two-time all-league player, and back court returners Brandon Borja and Shaun Verdida to comprise a starting lineup that has incredible chemistry and underrated talent. They finished 6-2 in the South Bay League, with their only losses coming to league champs Bonita Vista.
How they got here: Rancho Bernardo
After a miserable 5-23 season that included locker room turmoil and the program's worst showing in the Maxpreps era, the Broncos rebounded with its first 20-win season since 2017. Unlike that team, which relied heavily on a superstar guard in JJ Overton, the 24-25 Broncos are a collection of unheralded hoopers who have embraced defense and a gritty style of play to manufacture wins. Seniors Evan Woodland, Luke Sanchez and Ethan Palmer average 33 points per game between, but the rest of the supporting cast all contribute, including Ramona transfer Lucas Winkler, whose addition to the lineup after Jan. 1 has coincided with the Broncos going 11-4 during that stretch. They won the Valley League at 9-1, their lone loss to second-place Ramona on the road, and they had a big opening season win, stunning Del Norte (who returned the favor a month later), and a nice win over a very good El Dorado team from Orange County.
Why they'll win: Southwest SD
Continuity. The Raiders have started the same lineup throughout the season, and that type of stability matters in high school basketball, as it has allowed the to develop great chemistry and togetherness.
Why they'll win: Rancho Bernardo
Scheduling: The Broncos entered the league portion of its schedule with one of the strongest strength-of-schedule ratings among Division 3 teams, playing the likes of Torrey Pines, Poway, Del Norte, Carlsbad and Scripps Ranch. You could see how it prepared them for Valley League play as they almost ran the table and have not been challenged in their first two playoff games. Southwest, conversely, has the weakest SOS among the remaining teams and their best nonleague wins were against Valhalla and Crawford.
Prediction:
It's hard to bet against the Raiders, as they have successfully held serve on their home court for five straight playoff games dating back to last season. But this one feels different, as the Broncos come in with size and guard play to match them. An ex-factor in this game will be the matchup between Noah Santa Ana and Brandon Borja. I think this one is an upset in the making and should be one of the best games on a busy Wednesday night.
Rancho Bernardo 62, Southwest SD 59 (OT)
(3) Maranatha Christian (15-15) vs (7) Coronado (14-16), 7 p.m. Wednesday, Feb. 26
Head to head: Did not play
Common Opponents: Ramona (Maranatha Christian won 56-49; Coronado won 83-79, lost 69-57); San Ysidro (Maranatha won 68-28; Coronado won 77-23); Mira Mesa (Maranatha lost 64-46; Coronado lost 62-48, 67-60); Madison (Maranatha lost 51-29; Coronado lost 62-54, won 65-57); Canyon Hills (Maranatha won 47-34, 65-59; Coronado won 52-35, lost 46-41)
Key Players
Maranatha Christian: Adrian Ownbey, 6-3 Jr. W; Dash Ekeroth, 6-1 Jr. G; Will Ralston, 6-2 Jr. W; Shane Piester, 6-5 Jr. F; Cole Niguidula, 5-7 So. G; Austin Quinn, 5-11 Fr. G
Coronado: Loxly Johnson, 5-11 Sr. G; Austin Brown, 5-8 So. G; Ah'Mahn Oliver, 6-2 Fr. W; Derick Ritter, 6-1 Jr. G/F; Kannon Seals, 5-6 So. G; RJ Sanchez, 6-2 Sr. F; Spencer Reidarson, 6-2 Jr. F
How they got here: Maranatha Christian
The Eagles rode a hot start and then had to tread water during play in the Coastal League, one of the four strongest leagues in the section. They went 1-7 in league play, but that one win was an impressive one, a road win against Division 2 Final Four team Bishop's. Outside of the Coastal League, the team is an impressive 14-8, and has done it with one of the narrowest rosters in the region. Injuries to junior Jeronimo Martinez essentially meant that the team was playing with five guys for most of league play, but those five are as connected as you'll see, with Ownbey, Ekeroth, Ralston and Piester comprising one of the most underrated junior quartets in San Diego, while Niguidula has quietly become a solid varsity contributor. But much of the attention Wednesday turns to the health of Ownbey, who did not play in the Eagles narrow quarterfinals win over Canyon Hills. In his place, freshman Austin Quinn had a season high 11 points, but the advantage definitely shifts to Coronado if Ownbey, the wiry and versatile playmaking wing, is unable to go.
How they got here: Coronado
The Islanders have consistently been a tough out for teams this season (their only losses by more than 20 points were to Olympian and Santa Fe Christian), losing some heartbreakers to some solid teams before starting to put it together down the stretch, beginning with a 65-57 takedown of then-undefeated (in City League play) Madison and continuing on senior night with a comeback win over La Jolla. They continued the reversal of fortune in the playoffs, soundly beating No. 2 seed Point Loma 65-54 after dropping two games to the Pointers by a combined five points during the regular season. They have perhaps the most prolific scorer remaining in the D3 playoffs in Loxly Johnson, who has blossomed in his final year as a near-20 ppg scorer, capable of hitting big shots for the Islanders. Austin Brown has also become a star in Year 2, growing physically and averaging double figures. The revelation this year has been the emergence of the freshman Ah'Mahn Oliver, whose motor, opportunistic slashing and improved shooting have given the Islanders a pretty potent trio. If they can get shooting effort out of Mater Dei Catholic transfer guard Kannon Seals like the one he put on against Point Loma in the quarterfinals, the Islanders can beat anyone.
Why they'll win: Maranatha Christian
Coaching: This isn't a shot at Anthony Ott of Coronado, who has helped to lead the Islanders back from the fallout from the infamous "TortillaGate" in 2021 and has them on the verge of their first championship appearance since Wayne McKinney and Alex Crawford were on campus. But you can argue that no coach has done more with less than the Eagles leader Brooks Barnhard, who has guided the program into the Coastal League and has them competitive with the most threadbare of rosters in terms of sheer numbers. His teams execute and defend and always play greater than the sum of their parts.
Why they'll win: Coronado
Momentum: The Islanders win streak is only three games and four of their last six, but all four of those games represented significant psychological hurdles cleared - against La Jolla, which beat them on a buzzer beater earlier in league play, against Madison, becoming the only team in the City League who could boast a victory over the Warhawks; against Imperial, winning their first round home game after losing in the first round the past two season, and beating Point Loma, their bitter rival who had beaten them twice this season. I wouldn't want to play the Islanders.
Prediction:
As stated in the Maranatha section, this game rides on the health of Adrian Ownbey, who missed the last game with an injury. If he isn't able to go, it gives the Islanders a path to a win. Even with Ownbey, this one will be a very tightly contested matchup. The Eagles, playing at home, have the edge.
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